Three major Canadian banks offered positive economic outlooks on Thursday, in stark contrast to the concerns expressed by numerous small businesses dealing with the impacts of a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results before the Toronto Stock Exchange opened on Thursday. Collectively, these banking giants hold assets totaling up to $6 trillion on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios including mortgages, auto loans, and other debt products, along with networks spanning Canada and the U.S., these institutions have a unique perspective on monitoring the effects of tariffs.

RBC CEO Dave McKay expressed optimism about the Canadian economy’s resilience, citing improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter. He also noted the average effective tariff rate of approximately six percent, with over 80 percent of exports remaining duty-free. TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. Chun highlighted over $1 trillion in approved projects by Ottawa and the provinces through 2035, signaling significant investment opportunities.

CIBC CEO Harry Culham conveyed confidence in the latter half of 2026 but refrained from speculating on the evolving trade environment. The bank is closely monitoring the labor market for any signs of weakness. A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council indicated that eliminating the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) could result in the loss of over 100,000 Canadian jobs. BMO Capital Markets predicted a half percentage point reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily impacting business confidence and investment.

National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira commended Canada’s resilient economy over the past 18 months and praised government investment plans and aid measures for those affected by U.S. tariffs. He pointed to positive developments in energy, power infrastructure, and the icebreaker contract announcement in Quebec. Ferreira also lauded the decision by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to lower the domestic stability buffer, allowing banks more flexibility in lending to struggling businesses.

While Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank CEOs separately deemed the Canada-U.S. trade war manageable, the big Canadian banks’ stocks are trading near all-time highs on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF, comprising Canadian bank stocks, has surged by nearly 50 percent in the past year.