The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and possibly become the most powerful ever, leading to increased chances of extreme weather in the coming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned in a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences monitored over the past four decades.
The World Meteorological Organization stated that their projections indicate a nearly 100% probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A severe El Niño event can cause significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the remarkable intensification of El Niño, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño occurs cyclically every two to seven years, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific resulting from weakened trade winds. This natural phenomenon typically lasts up to 12 months and can trigger intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The impact of this year’s El Niño has already been felt in tropical regions, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO expects El Niño to peak later this year, with its effects persisting into 2027 and contributing to higher global temperatures in the following year. In response, the WMO is enhancing its preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate potential risks.
Secretary-General Saulo highlighted the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
Overall, the intensification of El Niño poses significant challenges, and proactive measures are being taken to address the potential impacts on global weather patterns and various sectors.